March 18, 2014
The Common Sense Show
Why has Russia agreed to a cease fire until March 21st, just three days from now? Why has Putin been so audacious as to threaten to turn the United States into radioactive ash? The latter fact was reported by Dmitri Kiselyov, a television news broadcaster on state-owned station Russia One television. This can only be considered a direct warning, or threat, by Russia to the US.
I have firsthand experience with the Russian media (i.e. Voice of Russia) and I can accurately state that nothing of a controversial nature goes out over the Russian media without state-sanctioned approval. Putin probably wrote the press release himself.
Sizing Up the Combatants
Russia has a minimum of 80,000 troops and 285 tanks poised off of Ukraine’s eastern border ready to cross and seize Ukraine. Meanwhile, Poland has mobilized its forces, but that move is merely defensive. Nearby Belarus is hoping not to get caught in the crossfire and they will stay out of the coming conflict.
Ukraine has called up 40,000 reservists to supplement its 120,000 man army. This is just enough of a military force to increase business for Ukrainian mortuaries.
Russia has the support of another 100,000 troops in Crimea. An estimated 20,000 can participate in the invasion of Ukraine. The Russian naval aircraft coverage, in Crimea, can offer cover for an invasion. Russian paratroopers can be deployed in 30-60 minutes after takeoff from Crimea’s previously seized airports. Ukraine has no defense for the Russian paratrooper forces poised to attack from Crimea.
The Russians are already engaging in a series of probing maneuvers into Ukraine. It looks more like the Russians are trying to provoke a Ukrainian military reaction by a frightened military battlefield commander and then the Russians will have their pretext to invade. Most military analysts that I know state that Russia will carve up Ukraine in a three pronged attack which will take about three days to complete, with isolated pockets of Ukrainian resistant lasting a bit longer if Ukraine has the stomach for the fight, which many analysts question.
The Ukrainians also have private armies totaling an estimated 20-30,000 troops which protect Ukrainian oligarchs. Reportedly, the Russians are already working at bribing these troops to lay down their arms and the oligarchs will be left alone.
If the oligarchs knew their Russian history, they would not think about laying down their arms. Former Russian officers, in Moscow, were told by the Bolshevik revolutionaries to turn in their guns and they would be left alone during the Red Revolution. All of the officers who did so, were executed on the spot. This is a consistent theme in world history with regard to gun confiscation (are you listening residents of America?). If the oligarchs decided to fight a guerrilla war similar to the Mujahedeen (al CIA-aeda) did in Afghanistan, the Russian consolidation of its holdings in Ukraine, particularly it natural gas shipments through the country would be imperiled with nearly 6-8 weeks of winter left in Europe. This insurgency force is the ONLY hope that Obama has in mounting any kind of meaningful resistance.
Putin cannot allow an oligarchy guerrilla force to be established and fully-equipped by the CIA as we saw in Afghanistan, Libya and later Syria. Putin is going to act quickly and decisively. It is likely that this three day truce window contains a negotiation process between the FSB and the oligarchs who could be offered a piece of the natural gas pipeline pie in exchange for standing down.
Could such a force hold out until NATO forces could invade an already occupied Ukraine? Maybe, but it is a moot point. Putin will never allow time for an insurgency force to be readied. Again, this is why Putin has promised only 3 more days of cease fire. In these three days, the Russians are determining their most likely pockets of resistance and are planning accordingly.
The time is growing near, the Russians are taking off their proverbial gloves and the fight is about to commence, perhaps as early as this weekend.
Putin Employs JFK’s Cuban Missile Crisis Strategy
Do you remember your 1962 history as Russian naval forces were sailing towards Cuba after JFK had established a naval blockade around Cuba? As the Russians approached the firing line, JFK contracted the circle of the blockade and gave the Russians time to think about their options. ICBM nuclear missiles lie in wait in the silos as American forces were on the highest alert. After the Americans contracted their blockade line, the Russians had a political decision to make. Did they really want to trigger World War III?
Ironically, Putin is taking a page out of the American playbook from 1962. Putin has given the Americans a little more time to think about their course of action. Similar to JFK, he has contracted his “blockade line” so to speak. He has extended Obama, or whatever bankster is pulling his strings, 72 more hours to make a decision on how far the Americans are willing to go to try and coerce Ukraine into joining the European Union (EU). All the signs are there which suggest that Putin is not going to allow the Ukrainians more time to prepare a Taliban type of defense. He is also not going to allow the massing of NATO ships off of Crimea before invading.
Putin is an ex-KGB Colonel, that subsequently morphed into the brutal Russian mafia, and he will not posture. It is not in his nature. Unlike Obama, he is determined and focused. Putin knows exactly what he is doing. Compromise is not Putin’s nature. He is willing to go to war in order to build his Eurasian empire out of the ashes of the former Soviet Union. By this time next week, the military control over the Ukraine could be all but over.
What About the American Rapid Response Forces?
After 9/11, President Bush did put 10,000 boots on the ground, relatively quickly in Afghanistan. He forced capitulation from Pakistan in support of the Afghan mission. The Americans could and did establish a foothold in the country. So, why can’t the same be done in Ukraine? When I raised this question with my military sources, they all scoffed at the question.
In 2001, the enemy in Afghanistan was a bunch of armed drug dealers who were not as powerful as a national guard unit in Montana. The Americans had control of the air and the Americans faced no mechanized forces in Afghanistan. The Russians, at this point in time control the air, the nearby sea adjacent to Crimea and they have a powerful mechanized force. Any rapid deployment force inserted into Ukraine, without the support of tactical nuclear weapons, would not be sizeable enough to oppose the Russians and would be crushed in less than a week.
NATO’s Response Window
Just how soon could the Americans and their NATO allies be able to successfully oppose the Russians in Ukraine without resorting to nuclear weapons? The earliest it is estimated that the Americans could be deployed in a meaningful manner would be in late June/early July. The Russian military is not the Taliban. Deployment of hostile forces in Ukraine would be opposed by Putin.
My military sources claim that NATO cannot be ready to meaningfully oppose the Russians in Ukraine until as late as July is bolstered by the following information.
Operation Rapid Trident (2014) is a very large, USAREUR-led multinational military exercise scheduled for July and according to my military sources is still very much alive.
The Trident exercise is to be headquartered in Lviv, Ukraine, near the Polish border. The exercise is a cooperative endeavor between Ukraine and other NATO nations. No doubt that the mere existence of this military exercise pushed Putin to act when he did. Again, Obama and the CIA’s triggering of the coup in Ukraine which led to the ouster of the Russian friendly government, happened too quickly and it gave Putin time to act to prevent NATO any meaningful opportunity to consolidate its forces.
Ex- KGB Colonel Putin needs less than a week to subdue Ukraine
First, Russian commandos will take down the power grid of airports and surrounding towns and villages. This will cause mass confusion among Ukraine’s military. Ukrainian military communications will be immediately taken out. Almost immediately, Russian paratroopers and helicopters will be deployed to Ukraine’s airports and seize the runways under the cover of early morning darkness. Subsequently, Ukrainian military forces will scarcely know what has hit them. Two of the military strategists that I spoke with think the airports will be seized with a minimal amount of fighting. The seizing of the airports will mark a quick end for Ukraine’s military resistance.
By the morning of the first day, heavy mechanized equipment will be landed in the seized airports, under the protection of the Russian Air Force, and will link up with the Russian paratroopers holding the airports. Simultaneously, the Russian mechanized forces will cross Ukraine’s eastern border and fan out in three directions and immediately seize the major cities. Russians will invade Ukraine’s southern underbelly, from Crimea from two directions to prevent retreat and consolidation of Ukraine’s forces.
It is likely Ukraine will be overwhelmed and fighting will be kept at a minimum. And what about the potential insurgency forces coming from the ranks of the private armies? The chances are is that they have already been bribed by Putin. Ukraine is about to be carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey and there is not a thing that Obama can do about it. Any Ukrainian military defense against a Russian invasion will make Obamacare look well-organized by comparison. Game over!